SecondBox sources and methodology
Sources and methodology
Where the ≈ 10 % comes from, and what it does not mean
Figures per period and comparison of windows
The reference annual flow (≈ 65 M€) is broken down according to the chosen period, then cumulated over each selected window. The exports mirror the view shown on screen.
1 year
≈ 65 M€
per yearReference annual flow divided by the number of periods in the year, i.e. 65 M€ ÷ 1. Linear breakdown, assuming constant sales.
≈ 65 M€
cumulative · 1 year
3 years
≈ 65 M€
per yearReference annual flow divided by the number of periods in the year, i.e. 65 M€ ÷ 1. Linear breakdown, assuming constant sales.
≈ 195 M€
cumulative · 3 years
5 years
≈ 65 M€
per yearReference annual flow divided by the number of periods in the year, i.e. 65 M€ ÷ 1. Linear breakdown, assuming constant sales.
≈ 325 M€
cumulative · 5 years
Reading note: the cumulative figure is a sum of face value over several years at constant sales. It is neither a profit nor a cash receipt.
Documents used
Business press · market size
Le Parisien, December 2023: Wonderbox, 3 million boxes and €350 million in salesPublic order of magnitude for the French market from the sector leader. Our example uses a market base of €650 million, roughly €600 million in France and €65 million in Belgium.
Press · non-use phenomenon
Le Monde, December 2021: forgotten, the fate of gift boxesInvestigation into boxes that end up in a drawer. Documents the non-use phenomenon, without publishing an issuer-audited rate.
Methodological reference · breakage
Le Progrès, December 2021: nearly one billion euros of unspent gift cards per yearComparison reference for prepaid instruments (breakage). The mechanism is similar to that of gift boxes and gives comparable orders of magnitude, between 5 % and 10 % of the value issued.
Issuer source · validity periods
Terms and conditions published by the issuers (Smartbox, Wonderbox, Bongo, Vivabox)
Validity periods, extensions and exchange policies, available on the issuers' websites. They define the time to expiry used in the table.
Why this is not a profit
A box sold for €100 does not leave €100 with the issuer. You must deduct the distributor's commission, applicable VAT, acquisition marketing cost, platform and customer service fees, as well as accounting provisions for as long as the box remains usable. Part of the unused value is also offset by commercial extensions and credit notes. The figure quoted is therefore a face value of potentially unused boxes, not a margin, not a net result and not available cash flow.
Legal caution
- Definition. "Non-use" means that a box led to no booking before its deadline, including extensions. It is not a lost, stolen or refunded box.
- Validity. The validity period varies by issuer, country and year of purchase. A box that is still valid is not included in the calculation.
- Time horizon. The amounts do not repeat identically every year, they depend on the validity period of the boxes sold.
- Nature of the amount. Face value, never the net cash flow or profit of a named company.
- Independence. SecondBox is not affiliated with any issuer. The brands mentioned are for information purposes only.
Impact depending on the validity period
Same assumption in all three cases, €650 million in sales per year and a non-use rate of 10 %, i.e. ≈ €65 million of unused face value per generation of boxes. At constant sales, the flow reaching expiry stays ≈ €65 million per year regardless of duration: what changes is the time to expiry and the stock of boxes still usable at a given moment.
12-month validityPeriod during which the box remains usable, including commercial extensions. It is set by the issuer and varies by country and year of purchase.
≈ 65 M€
outstanding stockFace value of potentially unused boxes still usable at a given moment. Calculation: €650 million in annual sales × 10 % × number of years of validity. · time to expiry 1 yearTime elapsed between buying a box and its deadline. A box bought today with 3 years of validity can only expire in 1 year.
The stock of still-usable boxes stays small, the unused value reaches expiry quickly.
24-month validityPeriod during which the box remains usable, including commercial extensions. It is set by the issuer and varies by country and year of purchase.
≈ 60 M€
outstanding stockFace value of potentially unused boxes still usable at a given moment. Calculation: €650 million in annual sales × 10 % × number of years of validity. · time to expiry 2 yearsTime elapsed between buying a box and its deadline. A box bought today with 3 years of validity can only expire in 2 years.
At constant sales, two generations of boxes coexist, the stock doubles but the annual flow does not change.
3-year validityPeriod during which the box remains usable, including commercial extensions. It is set by the issuer and varies by country and year of purchase.
≈ 90 M€
outstanding stockFace value of potentially unused boxes still usable at a given moment. Calculation: €650 million in annual sales × 10 % × number of years of validity. · time to expiry 3 yearsTime elapsed between buying a box and its deadline. A box bought today with 3 years of validity can only expire in 3 years.
The most common case today, the stock is the highest and the deadline the furthest away.
Reading note: the figure shown is the stock of potentially unused face value still held by holders, at constant sales. It is neither a profit, nor a cash receipt, nor an amount repeated extra each year.
Calculation methodology
Rate ≈ 10 %
Upper bound of the 5 % to 10 % range cited by the business press and consistent with the breakage observed on prepaid instruments. Used as a conservative assumption, not as audited data.
Annual flow
Annual sales × non-use rate, i.e. €650 million × 10 % ≈ €65 million. At constant sales, this flow does not depend on the validity period: every generation eventually reaches its deadline.
Stock and time to expiry
Stock = annual flow × validity period in years. The time to expiry is the time remaining before the deadline: it is the window during which a box can still be used or resold, and therefore saved.
Assumptions used, in plain terms
- Annual sales base: €650 million in face value (France ≈ €600 million, Belgium ≈ €65 million).
- Non-use rate: 10 %, upper bound of the 5 % to 10 % range reported in the press.
- Annual flow: €650 million × 10 % ≈ €65 million, constant regardless of the validity period.
- Stock: €65 million × validity period, i.e. ≈ €65, 130 and 195 million for 12, 24 and 36 months.
- Time to expiry: 1, 2 and 3 years, drawn from the validity periods published by the issuers.
- Assumed pattern: constant sales year on year, excluding exceptional extensions.
All values are illustrative orders of magnitude, expressed in face value including tax, based on a market assumption and not the accounts of a named company. Sources last checked: August 2026.